Germany to decide the fate of the european project.
Markets have always loved a `bogeyman` – someone who gets blamed for movements in exchange rates, or is rumoured to be at the fringes of acceptable behaviour. I remember very well when even Central...
View ArticleThe fate of sterling – government means more than good PMI.
On a thin news day, but one likely to be centred around sterIing after today`s bumper PMI numbers, I would just like to make the comparison between the economic state of the UK – as perceived from the...
View ArticleECB decision – the impact or the message?
Question: is it really that interesting/important if the ECB cut rates tomorrow by 25bp? Such a move would have very little impact on the real economy – for goodness sake, rates have been low enough...
View ArticleECB – what happens after a rate cut?
This morning has been about waiting for the inevitable BOE `unchanged` decision, and the less certain ECB announcement. If you take the percentage chance of a cut by the ECB, as judged by the...
View ArticleECB rate cut – shock and awe for the euro.
I don`t know whether to take my hat off to the ECB for being so out of character, and doing something so blatantly against expectations, or to be concerned that they feel they HAD to act in such a...
View ArticleA big week for sterling.
Firstly, happy holiday to our friends across the pond – another day to lie down in that darkened room and ponder the nature of last week`s events! As Mike mentioned in his post last Thursday, this week...
View ArticleUK CPI fall; good news? You bet it is..
So, UK CPI for October comes in at 2.2% – AND in the follow up release, it is also confirmed that Santa planes to leave Lapland a day earlier this year to overcome anticipated problems on the M25! It...
View ArticleInflation and growth. Bank Governor walks the tightrope.
An interesting speech from the governor (or is that just me!) justifying the validity of his forward guidance, but at the same time, making the point that – as we know – market conditions must...
View ArticleUK retail sales add balance to the optimism.
Today`s retail sales numbers bring a bit of a reality check to the comparative euphoria of yesterdays inflation report and unemployment numbers. It just shows that despite the assumed boost given to...
View ArticleCarney v Yellen: A score draw on speeches.
I made the effort this week to sit through the BOE governors speech on Wednesday, and then did the same for Ms Yellen yesterday, and wow, what a difference between the two addresses. It obviously took...
View ArticleEuro strength: Fact; but a big challenge ahead.
Now….. this is one of those times when I try and look at what is real about a topic, try to apply some logic to understand the reasons why, and then overlay some analysis/judgement of my own to the...
View ArticleThe dreaded taper – Fed damned both ways?
It all looks pretty quiet and decidedly undecided out there. The FX market has definitely ramped up its dependency on news and statistical input in order to justify a reaction. Nothing wrong with that...
View ArticleThe BOE, and low interest rates in this recovery
So, the MPC have unanimously voted to keep rates unchanged, the outlook is confirmed as rosy – and the minutes confirm expectations for low inflation, rising growth and falling unemployment. It should...
View ArticleOverload of info from the Fed – is the message changing?
There is an awful lot of talk coming out of the Fed just at the moment, and the market is trying to weigh up all the nuances of The Chairman`s speech, the FOMC minutes and individual comments by...
View ArticleModel trading in FX – good for all of us?
The market is still thrashing around, searching for direction, and after a week of seemingly endless comments from various officials, all pulling us one way then the other, it might be nice to sit back...
View ArticleFX model trading – some follow up thoughts.
It is quiet start to the markets on this lovely morning in London town, so on Friday I published a few thoughts about model based trading as an alternative/additional strategy to the conventional...
View ArticleFX models and modelling – the third and final phase.
Markets continue to drift sideways, and so I thought today, I might finish my discussion about macro funds and model trading. The comments from you yesterday seemed to reflect a healthy scepticism...
View ArticleMark Carney v select committee beasts – the verdict!
Another day, another Select Committee, and the sight of another group of MP`s firing off salvos of ill concealed bile towards whoever is in front of them – to me, not an edifying sight! So I was glad...
View ArticlePerky pound – on balance a positive for UK plc.
Firstly may I wish our cousins in the US a very happy holiday, but don`t forget to watch that budget at the shops tomorrow! I was going to wait to hear Mr Carney again, but my appetite I am afraid is...
View ArticleUK recovery – confidence bolstered by the Banks bold move.
How reassuring it is to see that pre-emptive action in managing an economy is alive and well and living in the UK, AND that there does exist a tool other than the wide brush of monetary policy for...
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