NFP – no crystal ball, so let`s look for the value.
Not much in the way of news this week to give the market any great impetus ahead of the jobs report today. Overall, I get the impression that the market wants to take the dollar higher, but needs more...
View ArticleNFP – a party pooper but not a game changer
What a way to end a week! With optimism about the US happily running at a recent high, along comes a NFP number that knocks the stuffing out of the market, and if nothing else turns the volume down at...
View ArticleUK politics – Labour lurches towards the middle class
I have said here before that the main thrust at the UK elections next year will be what to do about the extraordinary increase in the cost of living that has taken place here over the last 5 years or...
View ArticleBank achieves target, but UK Government must try harder!
Ring out the bells, and kill the fatted calf! UK Inflation has after 4+ long years actually attained its target rate of 2%. Wild celebrations took place at the Bank yesterday, as some of the economists...
View ArticleEurozone deflation; no problem in Germany, but elsewhere?
It was interesting for me to see the IMF managing director Christine Lagarde putting a higher profile on the prospect of deflation as a worldwide issue. My guess is that this was aimed primarily at...
View ArticleQE – a short term friend, but will it be a long term enemy?
The outgoing Fed chairman has felt the need to go on record recently defending bond purchases (QE). He makes the point that financial stability concerns surrounding the size and length of the programme...
View ArticleThe MPC is back! But let`s set rates every 3 months.
Much has been said and written over the last week about inflation/deflation and the elusive nature of inflation targets. Particular focus fell on the Bank of England, and the fact that a 2% inflation...
View ArticleMacro hedge funds – this year will be better…they hope!
As yesterday was so quiet, I took a bit of time to call a few friends in my old stomping ground, the world of hedge funds. The point of the process was to see if there were any great trends or...
View ArticleSterling in demand – growth needs balance to confirm.
It`s always an interesting exercise to analyse the psychology behind trading behaviour, and this morning`s price action in sterling is a case in point. The UK unemployment numbers come out slightly...
View ArticleThe euro, reasons to be cheerful – 1,2, er…
When I wrote a couple of days ago about my conversations with a few macro hedge funds, I mentioned that on the euro the message was that most were bearish on the political side, but remained reluctant...
View ArticleBOE Governor will try to avoid political car crash.
Oh dear, just when it was going so well…Mr Carney has had a smooth and uneventful introduction to UK plc, but that looks likely to be ending pretty soon. Why? Well it`s obviously nothing to do with the...
View ArticleFOMC decision this week is important for market stability.
Let`s all be clear folks, some problem or another in an emerging market (EM) economy these days, will always led to contagion elsewhere. The interconnected nature of EM fund investment (the driving...
View ArticleShould the Fed stop this monthly taper circus by being bold?
When the Fed eventually decided they had run out of excuses NOT to reduce their bond buying programme, no one there believed that the sympathetic, slow pace at which it was scheduled would so quickly...
View ArticleIntervention and interest rate hikes in EM countries.
Interesting to see that intervention and dynamic increases in interest rates are alive and well and living in Turkey – good luck with that then! Also nice to see the blame for a falling currency and...
View ArticleYellen and McCarney – please please us, no hard days nights!
Good morning everyone. Another false dawn for direction in our market then as the Fed do exactly what they should have done; and more than that, go out of their way to reiterate earlier guidelines in...
View ArticleEmerging markets – are there treasures in the rubble?
As we find ourselves in the middle of yet another major adjustment of investment preference and direction, amidst all the confusion, there are many out there trying to identify if there are any...
View ArticleWhy the ECB will not cut rates this Thursday
Assuming a pretty low profile at the end of a very noisy but interesting week, was the slightly disappointing Eurozone inflation number. The number on its own is fairly meaningless – not reflecting...
View ArticleThe Temptations were right, it really is a Ball of Confusion
Oh dear, remember not so long ago in those heady days of early January when optimism – about nearly everything – was rife! How quickly things change. Remember The Temptations song `Ball of...
View ArticleUK PMI, good; but much more of the same needed.
As much as I distrust and dislike certain statistics, (no prizes for guessing which one in particular!), I like and pay a lot of attention to PMI numbers. The Bank economists held this data from...
View ArticleECB – not comfortable between a rock and a hard place!
It would appear that we are going through one of those `wait and see` times. Just wishin` and hopin` and thinkin` and prayin` that the actions of the ECB or the electric shock of NFP day will kick...
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